FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Jalen Milroe lost Heisman, ACC favors Miami lead college football Week 6 overreactions

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centerrandom nature of sports makes it impossible to foresee every game’s outcome. A whole lot of well-lit buildings in the desert stand as testimony to this reality.

College football is especially prone to such randomness. Most of the time, analysts might feel like they have a handle on which team might prevail in a head-to-head encounter. Then there are Saturdays like the one we’ve just witnessed that make us question our entire world view.

An overreaction? Perhaps, but that’s what we’re here for in this space. Here are the top five overreactions from Week 6, one of the most chaotic in recent memory.

Jalen Milroe just lost the Heisman

Let’s be clear. Alabama’s historic loss at Vanderbilt was not entirely Milroe’s fault. Yes, his pick-six put the Crimson Tide in an early hole. And his fumble in the fourth quarter was costly. But his defense’s inability to get off the field severely limited his opportunities, and as such every mistake was magnified.

His heroics of a week earlier in the victory against Georgia still happened, however, and just as the award isn’t won with a single performance, neither is it lost. That said, his lead in the race has been reduced. He’ll have plenty of other high-profile games in the second half of the season, but so will numerous other candidates.

HIGHS AND LOWS: Alabama's upset leads Week 6 winners and loss

UNTHINKABLE UPSET: Vanderbilt's win one of sport's biggest surprises

The ACC replay booth is in the tank for Miami

It’s fairly indisputable that the ACC’s best chance of landing two teams in the playoff is for Miami and Clemson to win out and face each other in the league finale. This has led to much, shall we say, questioning of motives on the internet over the last couple of weeks as the Hurricanes benefited from controversial replay decisions in consecutive weeks.

We don’t normally like to give oxygen to conspiracy theories, and the idea that the league office would go to bat for a program that has caused it more than its share of headaches over the years by playing fast and loose with NCAA rules seems far-fetched. Then again, one can understand how the events of the last eight days might make folks wonder.

The reversal of the last-second Hail Mary touchdown that preserved the Hurricanes’ win against Virginia Tech last Friday might indeed have been the correct call, or at least have negated a wrong one made on the field. This week’s decision not to assess a targeting foul for a hit on California quarterback Fernando Mendoza seems significantly harder to justify.

Imperfect officiating has been part of the sport since time immemorial, of course, and the implementation of replay review can’t eliminate that aspect entirely. Miami probably shouldn’t count on such disputed outcomes to continue going its way, despite public perception of alleged favoritism.

The Big Ten will get more playoff spots than the SEC

As the perceived top-tier teams of the SEC began playing each other, some of them taking losses was inevitable. But now that several of those expected contenders have taken losses at the hands of lower-echelon conference members, it’s fair to question how many losses can be absorbed to earn at-large consideration in the newly-expanded 12-team playoff era.

As a result, it is the Big Ten that now has three teams ranked in the top five of the US LBM Coaches Poll. That trio has thus far avoided such losses to mid-tier squads. But can they continue to do so, and will the crowded SEC manage to sort itself out? It’s impossible to know at this point, but it will certainly make for an interesting next two months.

Vanderbilt is going bowling in 2024

Vandy’s rare triumph against a top-five opponent has fans of the SEC’s perennial gridiron doormat dreaming of even bigger things. The next box for the Commodores to check will be qualifying for a bowl game, something that hasn’t happened since 2018 and has occurred only nine times in the program’s history.

It could happen, but even with the win against the Crimson Tide in the Bank it isn’t a guarantee. For one thing, that Week 3 loss to Georgia State can’t be undone. That result as well as the overtime heartbreaker against Missouri leaves the Commodores still in need of three more wins. One of those should come in a couple of weeks in their final non-conference contest against Ball State, so two more ‘W’s in conference play must be found. Next week’s date with Kentucky and a Nov. 2 meeting with Auburn are winnable, but both are on the road making them 50-50 propositions. There’s also a home date with an up-and-down South Carolina squad. But if the Commodores can’t win two of those, they’ll have to spring another upset against Texas, LSU or Tennessee. Can they do it? Sure. Will they? Stay tuned.

Army and Navy will play twice

With the Black Knights and Midshipmen both starting 5-0 for the first time since 1945, fans of academy football are daring to dream that their storied rivalry might be contested twice this season, once in the American Athletic Conference championship game in which both are league members for the first time, then again a week later in their annual stand-alone game.

Such a scenario was spelled out by the conference when Army agreed to join prior to this season. All the Black Knights have done so far is win their first four AAC contests in decisive fashion. The Mids for their part are 3-0 in conference and also handily dispatched the third member of the academy triumvirate, Air Force, over the weekend.

Nearly halfway there then, but still a long way to go. Most other AAC members have only played a game or two in league, so it’s hard to discern where the toughest tests will come from. For now, it appears Navy’s Nov. 16 home date with Tulane and Army’s Nov. 9 trip to North Texas might be the most significant obstacles. It’s also worth noting that both academies will get a crack at Notre Dame, a potential resume booster that might even merit playoff consideration. This is a long-shot scenario to be sure, but after a weekend in which the sport was practically turned on its head, why not think big?